Lottery luck alone not enough in NBA draft

After the Hornets? expected selection of Kentucky star Anthony Davis on Thursday, draft experts have little idea what to expect from a weak class. David J. Phillip/Associated Press

Column by Mike Monroe

Luck in the NBA?s draft lottery is relative, and nobody understands this more than the Spurs.

They won the 1987 lottery, when David Robinson was the prize. That guaranteed more than a decade at an elite level, even if they had to wait two years before The Admiral could don silver and black.

When they won the lottery again in 1997 and Tim Duncan was coming out, they knew they had a shot at winning multiple titles.

Other lottery winners haven?t been so lucky with their timing.

Take the 2001 Wizards.

Please.

When Kwame Brown is the first player to shake David Stern?s hand on draft night, you?re better off to pick last in the first round. That allows you to select an unknown French point guard who would help Duncan win three of his four NBA titles.

The Hornets got plenty lucky last month when they won the lottery in a draft that has only one franchise changer. There are those who already believe Anthony Davis can change the Hornets as dramatically as Duncan changed the Spurs in 1997.

Everyone needs to understand Duncan is an all-time top-10 player and give Davis, the one-and-done Kentucky star, a bit of a break. He may share Duncan?s build, temperament and skill set, but Duncan led the Spurs to four championships in his first 10 seasons.

Perspective, please.

Duncan didn?t come out of a one-player draft, but he was the only true franchise changer. Chauncey Billups, the No. 3 choice, eventually would become its second-best player, win a Finals MVP Trophy and may some day go into the Hall of Fame, as Duncan certainly will. But he was hardly a draft-night franchise changer. It took him three trades and six teams before he won a title.

Davis is the only franchise changer in the re-stocking process that will take place Thursday night in Newark, N.J. Behind him are players who are potential NBA starters, but talk to a half dozen NBA GMs and there is no consensus on which players will be in the top five, and never mind the order.

Will the Bobcats use the second pick to try and rebuild around Kansas power forward Thomas Robinson? Or will Michael Jordan opt for Florida shooting guard Bradley Beal, a player who might remind him a bit of himself?

Is the upside potential of Connecticut 7-footer Andre Drummond enough to get him into the top five? Or will the consensus that he is years away from making an impact keep him in the second five?

Basketball experts with no reason to deceive call Thursday?s proceedings a one-player draft. Others believe there are players who can be solid role players ? Shane Battier types, one GM said ? for years to come.

?I think this draft is going to surprise some people,? said an Eastern GM. ?There are a lot of long-term rotation guys in the top 10.?

?It?s deeper than you might think at first glance,? said a Western GM. ?You can get pretty excited about five to 10, even some guys from 10 to 15.?

Could there possibly be a player left at pick No. 59, when the Spurs are slated to make their lone pick?

?R U kidding?? a team talent scout texted during a break from watching potential draftees on Saturday afternoon. ?Nobody knows what Spurs will do.?

What every NBA scout knows is this: Davis is clearly the class of the Draft Class of 2012.

?The dropoff from one to two is steep,? said one player personnel chief.

Already, Davis has changed not one, but two franchises.

To ensure there would be no ambivalence about Davis? role in New Orleans, the Hornets traded center Emeka Okafor to the Wizards in exchange for grossly overpaid Rashard Lewis, with Trevor Ariza thrown in to make the money work.

Suddenly, Washington has two new starters and reason to believe next season won?t be another exercise in futility.

That?s the dual power of one franchise changer.

mikemonroe@express-news.net

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